The Future Landscape — What Policy, Market and Investor Signals Mean for You

From Defra to disclosure regimes — understanding the forces shaping land and nature in 2025.

Credit: Lorenzo Spoleti

The world of natural capital is changing fast. What was once a marginal conversation about habitat restoration or tree planting is now a central issue for policy, markets and investment. From government mandates to investor reporting frameworks, the signals are multiplying — and for landowners, buyers and advisers, understanding those signals is becoming essential.

This article sets out the key forces shaping the future landscape — and what they mean in practical terms for those managing, stewarding or investing in land.

Why the pace of change matters

Natural capital markets and policies are still in their early stages — but they’re evolving quickly. In the last two years alone, we’ve seen the formal rollout of Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) requirements, growing interest in carbon and nutrient credits, and a marked shift in investor expectations around nature-related disclosure.

What was once a niche concern is now entering mainstream land strategy and boardroom planning. And while uncertainty remains, those who wait for perfect clarity may find themselves left behind.

Five major forces shaping 2025 and beyond

1. Biodiversity Net Gain becomes business as usual
The BNG policy, now legally required in England for most new developments, is reshaping how habitats are valued and traded. Developers must either create on-site habitat or purchase biodiversity units from landowners. Demand is growing — but so too is scrutiny over measurement, permanence and spatial rules.

For landowners, this means an opportunity to monetise habitat improvements. For buyers and advisers, it means ensuring credits meet quality and legal standards.

2. Nature-related corporate disclosure
The Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD) is gaining traction, with companies encouraged to assess and report on their dependencies and impacts on nature. It follows the model of climate-related disclosure (TCFD), but brings ecosystems into scope.

Expect large businesses, especially in finance, food and infrastructure, to increase demand for measurable, credible nature-positive investments — and for supply chains to be required to demonstrate ecological responsibility.

3. Aggregation and landowner collaboration
Smaller landowners are finding they can’t always access markets alone. Aggregation — forming clusters, shared baselines or joint ventures — is becoming a practical solution. It increases scale, attracts better buyers, and supports landscape-level outcomes.

But it also brings new complexity: governance, revenue sharing, and brand control all require careful handling.

4. Investor interest — and investor caution
Private capital is flowing into natural capital — but investors are demanding quality. Projects that look good on paper but lack ecological rigour or legal clarity won’t last. The winners will be those that combine credible baselines, long-term structure and clear return pathways.

This shift also means estates and businesses will increasingly be judged by their natural capital performance — not just on profit, but on soil, species and stewardship.

5. Political uncertainty and policy reform
Environmental land management (ELM), nutrient neutrality rules and green finance policy are all under review — and may shift again after the next general election. But this uncertainty should not deter action. Instead, it highlights the importance of flexible strategies that can adapt to changing conditions.

The direction of travel is still clear: markets will reward stewardship, regulation will increase, and those who can demonstrate ecological value will have more options — not fewer.

What this means for decision-makers

For landowners, it means thinking ahead. Projects that look marginal today may become high-value tomorrow. Landscape restoration, species recovery or soil improvement might unlock income, policy incentives or future development permissions.

For buyers, it means choosing projects with care — and thinking beyond short-term offsets. A biodiversity credit today may not just meet compliance needs, but also shape brand reputation, community partnerships and investor trust.

For advisers, it means learning enough to support your clients — not as environmental experts, but as informed partners in decision-making.

Final thought

There will always be noise and volatility in new markets. But the signals are getting clearer: land is no longer valued just for what it produces, but for what it protects, restores and sustains.

Those who invest early in understanding these shifts — and build strategies that align ecology, income and legacy — will be better placed not just to respond to change, but to shape it.